升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱耕地暴露度研究     

王安乾  陶辉  方泽华 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(6):695-706

基于CMIP5中的5个全球气候模式统计降尺度的降水、最高和最低气温等数据,利用标准降水蒸发指数（SPEI）和强度-面积-持续时间（IAD）方法识别全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱事件,结合30 m分辨率土地利用数据,探讨中亚干旱事件的演变及耕地暴露度变化。结果表明：相比基准期（1986—2005年),中亚地区的降水和潜在蒸发量均有所增加;全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,中亚地区的干旱事件频次、强度和面积均将增加,其中重旱和极旱事件的频次和影响面积大幅上升,而中旱事件的频次和影响面积持续下降;1986—2005年中亚地区年均干旱耕地暴露度约11.5万km2,全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下,干旱耕地暴露度将分别上升到17.9万km2和28.6万km2,且暴露在极旱下的耕地面积增加最明显。全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,增加的干旱事件将会严重威胁当地农业生产和粮食安全,中亚地区需对干旱事件采取长期的减缓与适应措施。  相似文献   

The Relationship between Deterministic and Ensemble Mean Forecast Errors Revealed by Global and Local Attractor Radii     

Jie FENG  Jianping LI  Jing ZHANG  Deqiang LIU  Ruiqiang DING 《大气科学进展》2019,36(3):271-278

It has been demonstrated that ensemble mean forecasts, in the context of the sample mean, have higher forecasting skill than deterministic(or single) forecasts. However, few studies have focused on quantifying the relationship between their forecast errors, especially in individual prediction cases. Clarification of the characteristics of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts from the perspective of attractors of dynamical systems has also rarely been involved. In this paper, two attractor statistics—namely, the global and local attractor radii(GAR and LAR, respectively)—are applied to reveal the relationship between deterministic and ensemble mean forecast errors. The practical forecast experiments are implemented in a perfect model scenario with the Lorenz96 model as the numerical results for verification. The sample mean errors of deterministic and ensemble mean forecasts can be expressed by GAR and LAR, respectively, and their ratio is found to approach2~(1/2) with lead time. Meanwhile, the LAR can provide the expected ratio of the ensemble mean and deterministic forecast errors in individual cases.  相似文献   

基于波形相似特征的微地震事件初至拾取及全局校正          下载免费PDF全文

喻志超  谭玉阳  翟尚  冯方方  何川  侯贵廷 《地球物理学报》2019,62(12):4782-4793

微地震事件初至拾取是井下微地震监测数据处理的关键步骤之一.初至误差的存在会使微地震震源定位结果产生较大偏差,进而影响后续的压裂裂缝解释.通常初至拾取过程对所有的微地震事件选择相同的特征函数并采用一致的拾取参数进行统一处理,然而当事件的能量、震源机制、传播路径以及背景噪声等存在明显差异时,所得初至拾取结果差别显著.为了提高微地震事件初至拾取标准一致性,本文提出基于波形相似特征的初至拾取及全局校正方法.该方法首先利用互相关函数对每个事件内的各道记录进行时差校正,得到初始初至信息并形成叠加道,再对所有事件的叠加道进行全局互相关得到事件间初至相对校正量,最终初至结果可以通过各个事件的初始初至信息与其相对校正量相加得到.方法将所有微地震事件初至结果作为一个整体处理,从而能够克服常规方法初至拾取标准一致性差的缺陷.实际资料处理结果表明,相比于常规方法,该方法可以有效提高事件初至拾取和定位结果的一致性.  相似文献   

衰减夹层GPR模拟的时频域全局反射误差   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

张彬  戴前伟  尹小波  冯德山 《地球物理学报》2017,60(3):1168-1178

全局反射误差分析是深入研究探地雷达(GPR)吸收边界条件吸收效率的有力工具.基于常规完全匹配层(PML)的标准交错网格有限差分算法必须满足严格的CFL条件限制,即在单位时间步长内,不容许电磁波传播的距离超过单元网格尺寸.为了提高主区域所有网格节点的计算效率,并有效地吸收传播后期出现的低频隐失波,提出基于非分裂递归卷积完全匹配层(UCPML)的旋转交错网格(RSG)GPR正演算法.该算法采用不同的网格交错策略,并在边界条件中引入了吸收低频隐失波的自由可变因子,使得该算法允许选取较大的时间步长,提高了计算效率,并且实现了对低频隐失波的高效吸收.本文首先给出了RSG差分格式,推导了基于UCPML的RSG差分更新方程,探讨了数值色散的稳定性条件,然后以绕射现象严重的衰减夹层数值模拟为例,分别从波场快照、单道波记录、时间域反射误差(TDRE)、频率域反射误差(FDRE)四个方面分析了UCPML与常规PML的全局反射误差,说明了基于UCPML和RSG的GPR正演算法能更有效地吸收低频隐失波.  相似文献   

The role of Quality of Place factors in expatriate international relocation decisions: A case study of Suzhou,a globally-focused Chinese city     

《Geoforum》2017

The role of ‘quality of place’ (QoP) in attracting and retaining workers has been a significant concern of urban related policy makers and research communities over the past decade. This paper aims to address the significance of QoP factors in attracting and/or retaining global talent by presenting the findings and implications of a study into the relocation decisions of expatriate workers in Suzhou, China. Findings from a survey questionnaire indicate that global talent moving to Suzhou have been driven primarily by career-related opportunities instead of QoP factors. However, binary logit analysis shows that QoP factors have contributed positively towards the retention of global talent in the city.  相似文献   

Hydraulic modeling of flood pulses in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), UNESCO Cilento Global Geopark,southern Italy          下载免费PDF全文

Vittorio Bovolin  Albina Cuomo  Domenico Guida 《水文研究》2017,31(3):639-653

Karst systems provide water for domestic and industrial uses and for generating hydropower, but they can also create fluvial hazards, such as upstream back‐flooding and downstream karst flash‐flood events. However, these hazards are difficult to foresee due to the complex recharge‐discharge processes as well as the lack of information on the inside of the system, which has often not been completely surveyed by speleologists or explored by boreholes. To overcome these difficulties, hydro‐chemical data from the monitoring system in the Middle Bussento Karst System (MBSKS), one of the first Experimental Karst Systems in southern Italy, were recorded and previously discussed. Based on shared background in flood karst hydraulic modeling, this paper describes the conceptual premises and rationale of a general‐purpose hydraulic model that is suitable both for the MBSKS and for other Mediterranean, multi‐recharge, mature, conduit‐dominated karst systems. To test the reliability of the model, simulations of time–space behavior and response are performed using natural and artificial flood pulses “as tracers”, considering a “pulse” as a significant variation in water quantity and/or quality. The results of the model explain the interactions between allogenic, autogenic, and anthropogenic recharges from differentiated sources and phreatic conduit systems. These results also clarify the overall response of karst springs at typical time scales of flood pulses. Table acronym name  相似文献   

Knowledge integration in sustainability governance through science-based actor networks     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

Understanding how science, technology and innovation can best help to accelerate progress in achieving sustainable development remains a grand challenge for researchers and practitioners. In the context of the global consultation process for preparing a post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda, various science-based actor networks have emerged, aiming to translate research into political decision-making and to inform transformations towards sustainability. Over the last years, these networks seem to have taken an ever-growing role in structuring the science-policy interface in global sustainability governance. The question arises, however, how they understand and organize ‘scientific knowledge integration’ in sustainability politics.This study offers a structured comparison of twelve global science-based actor networks engaged in the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. It shows that these networks use two types of strategies to foster scientific knowledge integration in sustainability governance. A new framework emerges, in which each strategy corresponds to two main approaches of scientific knowledge integration: The entrepreneurial strategy generally seeks to advance advice-oriented and solution-oriented knowledge processes, while assessment-oriented and learning-oriented processes in scientific knowledge integration are mainly promoted through a mediating strategy.  相似文献   

Designing geotechnical structures with a proper stability criterion as a safety factor     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2016

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“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs     

Alistair Raymond Bryce Soutter  René Mõttus 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2011

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.  相似文献   

Local, global and virtual buzz: The importance of face-to-face contact in economic interaction and possibilities to go beyond     

Harald Bathelt  Philip Turi 《Geoforum》2011,42(5):520-529

Novel information and communication technologies have created new possibilities for transferring information and knowledge over distance. Although this might open up broad options for economic interaction, knowledge regarding the effects of these changes on the geographies of production and innovation is still incomplete. Under these circumstances, permanent co-location and face-to-face (F2F) interaction may be efficient in some contexts but not in others. Support by computer-mediated communication (CMC), temporary, and virtual interaction is increasingly becoming the basis for establishing trans-local production networks. By combining results from social psychology with economic geography, it is argued that there is no generally superior spatial fix for economic interaction. Different spatial configurations can be advantageous in different production and innovation contexts, even over large distances without permanent or even regular F2F contact. This paper systematically investigates the effects of new communication technologies and different organisational forms for economic interaction by emphasizing the potential of combining CMC with forms of temporary and permanent F2F interaction.  相似文献